Office of Scientific and International Cooperation

Abstract: The title of my talk refers to a forthcoming book, to be published by Cambridge University Press, co-authored with Valérie Chavez-Demoulin (Lausanne) and Marius Hofert (Waterloo/Hong Kong University). Extreme Value Theory (EVT) offers a mathematical tool for the modeling of so-called What-If events, or stress scenarios. I will present several examples of risk-based decision-making and show how EVT can be used as part of the solution. The current pandemic has clearly shown that the communication of scientific evidence has a difficult stand in the ubiquitous environment of social media. I will discuss some examples of this struggle.”